While the current government shutdown looms as I write this, one thing is clear: our government sucks. Both parties are keen to play politics and pout if they don’t get their way, and as usual, the American people suffer (although despite what you hear on the news, these government shutdowns aren’t really a big deal unless they last a long time). This time, it appears the main cause for the shutdown stems from a disagreement between President Trump and the Democrats in Congress over spending an extra $5 billion on a “border wall” that Trump campaigned on. Congressional Republicans, as usual, are too spineless to actually take a stand and use the majority they have before the newly-elected Democrat majority takes over the House. Admittedly, I’m on the fence (no pun intended) about the wall funding; on the one hand, my libertarian-esque nature wants to limit federal spending in multiple areas, and I don’t think it wise to be spending so much taxpayer money when we are already so far in debt. On the other hand, I agree that more substantive measures need to be taken to secure our border, which is and should be one of the basic fundamental duties of the federal government. But because Trump is president, none of the Democrats are willing to compromise to give him what they think will be a political win (not that many Democrats really care about securing the border in general).

Looking forward to the next two years of Congressional stalemates and what very likely could be a drawn out impeachment process, it doesn’t appear that Trump will get many more legislative wins for the remainder of his term. Then comes 2020, the biggest wildcard election in recent history. Will Trump get primaried? Should he? Who will rise as the Dem nom? Can that person effectively take on Trump and win? Could there be a third party that comes in? With so many questions abounding, there is one inherent in all of them: Should Trump serve a second term? My answer, which may surprise those that know me well, is no. At least, not under the right circumstances.

I’ll first get into the idea that Trump will be primaried: I highly doubt this will occur unless something MAJOR happens that ruin’s Trump’s popularity with his base. And as we’ve seen over the last two years, Trump’s popularity hasn’t really wavered significantly with his supporters no matter what is reported. Trump eats McDonald’s too much? Or sleeps with a porn star while married? Or has his lawyer lie to the FBI? All of Trump’s flaws are usually explained away by comparing to other Democrat politicians (i.e. Bill Clinton), ignored because they aren’t actually controversies (such as the “girther” nonsense), or brushed off because “Trump’s our guy, and he’s better than any Democrat president! He passed tax cuts and is building a wall, so we gotta support him!” There is a willingness by many Republicans to ignore Trump’s many, many shortcomings to avoid the cognitive dissonance that comes with appreciating Republican’s political wins that they haven’t seen in almost a decade. I don’t see so many people abandoning the Trump ship so readily as to primary the sitting President and risk the Democrats winning once again, nor do I see any serious candidates that are willing to take on Trump and have enough support to make it worthwhile. Donald Trump is an unlikable president, but not unlikable enough to split the party (a second time, anyways).

There is also the possibility that a third party candidate could run on a moderate platform, especially since 2016 showed that both Republicans and Democrats were despised by many Americans based off of their candidates. However, the Libertarian and Green parties didn’t significantly better in 2016 than in other years, even with such disliked candidates in Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, so I doubt that they’ll be any more significant in 2020. But what about an established moderate politician, someone with name recognition and a history of bipartisan accomplishments to bank off of? Someone like, say, John Kasich? Kasich has previously mentioned that he would consider a 2020 run, and actually stayed in the 2016 race longer than Ted Cruz (leading many to believe that his persistence split voters and cost Cruz the opportunity to beat Trump in the primaries for the Republican nomination). The only thing Kasich has going for him is that he is likely equally hated among Democrats and Republicans, and probably couldn’t garner enough support to sustain a campaign outside of the two-party system. He could MAYBE win Ohio in a general election, but that’s about it.

Finally, we come to the Democratic party, which is hosting 12 debates during the 2020 election cycle, anticipating a large field of prospective nominees. While only John Delaney has officially announce a campaign, the left-wing propaganda machine Vox estimates as many as 34 potential candidates that could be running. There’s the “most likely” picks in Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren, some rising stars like Kamala Harris or Robert “Beto” O’Rourke, and some way out of left field, like Michael Bloomberg, Michael Avenatti, or South Bend’s own LimeBike enthusiast Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who thankfully anounced he was not seeking re-election in 2019 but is also making some curious trips to Iowa. Or, you know, Hillary Clinton could run again. It’s really hard to tell who could come out on top, and whether the Democratic base will double down on intersectionality and socialism or realize that a far-left campaign of that nature doesn’t win in the Midwest and try for a moderate approach.

If the Democrats elect someone really out there, like a Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren, then I will begrudgingly support Trump to prevent the collapse of America. The Democrats have been leaning further and further away from the Constitution and proposing some radical changes that could disrupt our country for the worse, possibly inciting a civil war if they push far enough. However, if they elect a more blue-collar moderate, such as Joe Biden or (I feel sick even saying this) Pete Buttigieg, then I may reconsider. Now, I’m not saying that I would vote for a Democrat, because they mostly stand against anything and everything I stand for. However, I may decide to vote third party, or leave the presidential ticket blank out of my own conscience. I don’t think Trump is a great or even a good president, nor is he helpful for the future of conservatism and the Republican party.

Eight years of Trump, I fear, could embolden an even more radical Democrat candidate in 2024 once Trump is no longer on the ticket, and I think that the Republican nominee in 2024 has a very low chance of appealing to Trump supporters to keep the base while also convincing enough moderates and swing voters that a party change in the presidency is not a good thing. A party hasn’t held the presidency for more than 2 terms since the late George H.W. Bush succeeded the great Ronald Reagan in 1988. Not even the media obsession with Obama could give his successor Hillary Clinton enough support in 2016 to win. Trump is certainly no Reagan, and realistically there’s not much else Trump can do in an eight term presidency unless Republicans take back the House in 2020 as well, which I don’t believe is very likely. I’d prefer to give the presidency to a moderate Democrat in 2020, in order to come back in 2024 with a strong conservative with good support (like Nikki Haley or, heck, Ben Shapiro) that can then hold the presidency for eight more years without any of the toxic or undesirable traits that Trump has. This, as opposed to Trump barely winning in 2020, not getting anything done in his second term because of media and Democrat feuds, and then getting a far-left socialist in 2024 that completely alters the country as we know it due to a significant backlash against Trump and, by association, the entire conservative movement. It’s an unconventional position, but it’s one that I believe is the best route for the country.

TL;DR – Eight years of Trump is not healthy or beneficial for the country, and could lead to significantly radical backlash from the far-left in 2024. Republicans have a much better chance of political success if Trump loses to a moderate Democrat, who then loses in 2024 to a strong and likable conservative candidate.